publications

Article

Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, asymmetric volatility transmission, and hedging strategies for petroleum prices and USD exchange rate

Mensi Walid, 2015

Energy Economics, 48, xxx, 46-60, Mars 2015

Résumé

The paper investigates the dynamic risk–return properties of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) capital markets and models potential time-varying correlations and volatility spillover effects with the US stock market. A VAR(1)–GARCH(1,1) framework contributes useful insight into US–BRICS market interactions and expands on a thin past empirical literature. A disaggregated approach pays attention to critical US–BRICS business sectors, namely the industrial and financial sectors. Significant return and volatility transmission dynamics are identified between the US and BRICS stock markets and business sectors. This is a critical input that can affect efficient global portfolio diversification and risk management strategies. Based on this empirical evidence, the study proceeds to assess effective portfolio hedge ratios and to construct optimal portfolio weights for diversified asset allocation to US–BRICS markets and business sectors.